Chris Cook and Will Hayler brought you all the latest news from the annual Grand National weights lunch
10.50am The road to the Grand National 2012 starts here
Chris Cook: Greetings from the plush confines of the Savoy, where a breathless crowd of pressmen await the release of the Grand National weights at 11.30am. The topweights will be released at 11am.
In normal circumstances, there would be no suspense at all about this kind of thing, because the weights would automatically follow the handicap ratings which are updated and republished each week. But, for this one race only, carte blanche is allowed to Britain's top handicapper, Phil Smith, to award weight as he pleases.
The National has always been a tricky puzzle for punters but Smith is credited with making it significantly more competitive than it was even a decade ago. He has generally used his powers to reduce the margins between those at the top of the weights, meaning that the best horses get to compete on more attractive terms than in any other handicap. It is a sensible approach, because the extreme stamina demands of the National mean that every pound carried makes more of a difference than in other races.
There was concern recently when it was revealed that only 82 horses had been entered for this year's John Smith's Grand National, to be run on Saturday 14 April. Normally, there would be more than 100 at the initial entry stage, although only a maximum of 40 can actually line up on the day.
Smith believes the reduced entry is explained by the fact that the race now attracts a better quality of horse. "There are more horses rated 145 plus than there were in 2011, which obviously shows that the race is going in the right direction," he says.
"The other point to note is that the percentage of entries rated over 135 is the highest ever. A whole host of horses were entered over the past five to 10 years that never had any hope of getting a run. All that is happening now is that owners and trainers are being more realistic and only entering horses which have a good chance of lining up."
A secondary significance to the weights is that, when the final entry stage comes along two days before the race, only the highest-weighted 40 will be allowed to run if there are still more than 40 in the race at that stage. That means heartbreak for the connections of those who just miss out on a run. With this year's reduced entry, however, it is possible that there may be fewer than 40 left by that stage and that everyone who wants to take part will get a run.
On past form, Smith is likely to take the "Aintree factor" into account, allotting a few extra pounds to horses who have done well over the Grand National fences in the past.
11am Top weights in Grand National are revealed on Twitter
Tony Paley: The weights are embargoed until 11.30 am but the ten at the top of the handicap for the 2012 running of the race have just been revealed on Twitter here by @TheAintreeInsider. They are: Synchronised, Ballabriggs, Midnight, Weird Al, Burton Port, Quel Esprit, Calgary Bay, Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat and Planet of Sound.
11.15am Those National top ten in detail
Tony Paley: Chris Cook has tweeted the details of the weight allotted to those ten at the top of the handicap here via his @ClaimsFive Twitter feed. They are: Synchronised 11-10, Ballabriggs 11-9, Midnight Chase 11-8, Weird Al 11-8, Burton Port 11-7, Quel Esprit 11-7, Calgary Bay 11-6, Neptune Collonges 11-6, Alfa Beat 11-5, and Planet Of Sound 11-5.
Chris says: Synchronised may not run but Ballabriggs will as long as he's fit, so weights unlikely to be raised by more than 1lb . . . Ballabriggs carried 11st when he won the National last year. He will have at least 9lb more on his back this time . . . Re handicap ratings, Ballabriggs was 150 in last year's National. For this year's race, he is rated 1lb higher than horses rated 163 & 164.
11.28am Top ten in National weights face tough task
Chris Cook: Now that we have the top 10 in the weights, all of them set to carry 11st 5lb or more, it is time to reflect on the task that faces this talented bunch. The last horse to win the National with more than 11-5 on his back was Red Rum in 1977, when he carried 11-8. He was also the last horse to win with more than that to carry, having shouldered 12st in 1974.
Don't Push It won with 11-5 a couple of years ago and Smith's changes to the race mean that it is not so hard to imagine success for horses with that kind of weight. But Don't Push It remains the only winner to carry more than 11-1 since 1983.
11.45am Synchronised the top weight for 2012 Grand National
Lexus Chase winner Synchronised has been allotted top weight of 11st 10lb for this year's John Smith's Grand National at Aintree.
The nine-year-old, who is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and owned by JP McManus, landed the Leopardstown Grade One over Christmas to supplement his previous win the Welsh National at Chepstow.
Next on the list is last year's winner, the Donald McCain-trained Ballabriggs, who shouldered 11st to victory but will be saddled with 11st 9lb should he line up on April 14.
Neil Mulholland's Midnight Chase and another McCain contender, Weird Al, both sit on 11st 8lb while Nicky Henderson's Burton Port and Willie Mullins' Irish Hennessy winner Quel Esprit are on 11st 7lb.
The Henrietta Knight-trained Calgary Bay and Paul Nicholls' Neptune Collonges are both on 11st 6lb while John Hanlon's Alfa Beat and Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound have been allotted 11st 5lb.
The David Pipe-trained Junior, the 14-1 market leader, failed to get in the field last year but has a certain place in 2012 with 11st 2lb.
Irish-trained raiders have a tremendous recent record in the Grand National, winning six of the last 13 runnings, and they have strength in numbers this year, accounting for 31 entries.
Along with Quel Esprit, Mullins has Thyestes Chase winner On His Own (10st 11lb), Blazing Tempo, the only mare entered, (11st 4lb), Apt Approach (11st 1lb), Scotsirish (11st 2lb) and Prince De Beauchene (10st 6lb) among his 12 possibles.
Other notable contenders include Henderson's other pair of Shakalakaboomboom (10st 12lb) and Quantitativeeasing (11st 2lb) while Mon Mome, who sprang a 100-1 surprise in the 2009 Grand National, has been given 10st 8lb this time.
The rapidly-improving Hold On Julio, who has won both his starts for trainer Alan King, has been given 10st 7lb, while his stablemate West End Rocker, winner of the Betfred Becher Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree on December 3, has a weight of 10st 12lb. PA
11.58am The 2012 Grand National weights in full
Here are all the entries for this year's Aintree marathon with name of horse plus age and weight (in old-fashioned stones and pounds) allotted.
SYNCHRONISED 9-11st-10lb; BALLABRIGGS 11-11-09; MIDNIGHT CHASE 10-11-08; WEIRD AL 9-11-08; BURTON PORT 8-11-07; QUEL ESPRIT 8-11-07; CALGARY BAY 9-11-06; NEPTUNE COLLONGES 11-11-06; ALFA BEAT 8-11-05; PLANET OF SOUND 10-11-05.
BLAZING TEMPO 8-11-04; ROBERTO GOLDBACK 10-11-04; BLACK APALACHI 13-11-03; DEEP PURPLE 11-11-03; JUNIOR 9-11-02; QUANTITATIVEEASING 7-11-02; SCOTSIRISH 11-11-02; TARTAK 9-11-02; APT APPROACH 9-11-01; LITTLE JOSH 10-11-01; PSYCHO (IRE) 11-11-00.
CHICAGO GREY 9-10-13; TATENEN 8-10-13; ACCORDING TO PETE 11-10-12; SEABASS 9-10-12; SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 8-10-12; WEST END ROCKER 10-10-12; HECTOR'S CHOICE 8-10-11; MASSINI'S MAGUIRE 11-10-11; ON HIS OWN 8-10-11; ALWAYS RIGHT 10-10-10; CAPPA BLEU 10-10-10; CRESCENT ISLAND 9-10-09; RARE BOB 10-10-09; MON MOME 12-10-08; ORGANISEDCONFUSION 7-10-08; THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 11-10-08; TREACLE 11-10-08; ARBOR SUPREME 10-10-07; COOLDINE 10-10-07; HOLD ON JULIO 9-10-07; PEARLYSTEPS 9-10-06; PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 9-10-06.
NICHE MARKET 11-10-05; ROULEZ COOL 9-10-05; STEWARTS HOUSE 10-10-05; SUNNYHILLBOY 9-10-05; UNCLE JUNIOR 11-10-05; FAIR ALONG 10-10-04; KILLYGLEN 10-10-04; QUISCOVER FONTAINE 8-10-04; THARAWAAT 7-10-04; ALWAYS WAINING 11-10-03; BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 9-10-03; LE BEAU BAI 9-10-03; STATE OF PLAY 12-10-03; SWING BILL 11-10-03; POSTMASTER 10-10-02; SHAKERVILZ 9-10-02; THE PACKAGE 9-10-02; WYMOTT 8-10-02; BACKSTAGE 10-10-01; GILES CROSS 10-10-01.
HELLO BUD 14-10-00; IN COMPLIANCE 12-10-00; MIDNIGHT HAZE 10-10-00; NORTHERN ALLIANCE 11-10-00; VIC VENTURI 12-10-00; VIKING BLOND 7-10-00; QHILIMAR 8-9-13; SOME TARGET 8-9-10; NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9-9-09; ANY CURRENCY 9-9-08; OUR ISLAND 7-9-07; SCHINDLER'S GOLD (IRE) 10-9-07.
ABBEYBRANEY 11-9-05; SADDLERS STORM 10-9-05: SMOKING ACES 8-9-05; KING FONTAINE 9-9-04; ANOTHER PALM 7-9-03; BALLYVESEY 7-9-02; MINELLA THEATRE 9-9-00.
Tony Paley: If you want those weights with more details, including trainer, owner and form figures you can find them here on the Racenews website.
McCain has no problem with Ballabriggs' burden
Chris Cook: Last year's winner, Ballabriggs, has not been seen since that day but his trainer, Donald McCain, reports that he "looks a million dollars and he's in really good form". He has been kept under wraps with this race in mind and will be given a gallop after racing at Haydock on Saturday. A gallop had been planned for a recent meeting at Bangor, but the card was abandoned.
After that, Ballabriggs will go to Kelso in early March for a final prep run in the same race he used last year as a springboard for the National. It's worth bearing in mind that he was surprisingly beaten at Kelso last year, which meant he started 14-1 for Aintree, having been favourite until that defeat.
I half expected McCain to complain about the horse's weight for this year's National, 11st 9lb, just 1lb below the top weight. In absolute terms that's only 9lb more than last year but, in terms of handicap ratings, it means he's been lifted by about a stone.
But the trainer smiled at my concern. "He was the National winner and he was a good National winner. I don't have a problem with it.
"He's a big, strong horse, a great big brute of a horse. If I was moaning about it, my father would turn round and say, just improve him 10lbs, so that's what we'll try and do."
McCain has two other entries in the National. Weird Al's aim is the Cheltenham Gold Cup but there is "a possibility" that he may then tackle the National, in which he is 1lb below Ballabriggs. The trainer says Weird Al is "well forward" and pleasing him in his work.
Wymott has been set 10-2, making him 61st in the weights, so he has a good chance of making the final cut of 40. McCain says "there would be no reason not to send him" though he has not ready explanations for the horse's disappointing form since he was sixth in the Hennessy in November. He may run first in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival, which Ballabriggs won two years ago.
Timeform make Prince their early pick
Tony Paley: Timeform have revealed their ratings following the publication of the Grand National weights and it is Donald McCain's Weird Al who comes out top. However, in their detailed analysis they make a very good case for Prince De Beauchene who is second-highest in their current list. Coincidentally, the experts at the Press Association racing desk just gave me the Willie Mullins' runner as their early fancy. So that's the race sorted then ? remember you read it here first.
Trainer says "good chance" top weight Synchronised will run
Chris Cook: Jonjo O'Neill says there is a "good" chance of Synchronised running in the Grand National, despite being set top weight of 11st 10lb, though he adds the caveat that he has not yet discussed this with the horse's owner, J P McManus. "He stays well, he jumped reasonably well at Leopardstown. He has his own way of doing it but, touch wood, he keeps doing it."
I put it to O'Neill that the horse is not the biggest. "No, he's not, but Red Rum wasn't that big. He's as big as him, I don't know if he's as good as him or not."
Synchronised missed the Hennessy Gold Cup in Ireland on Sunday after failing to please O'Neill in his work last week. "He wasn't just firing, so there was not point in going. But he's in the [Cheltenham] Gold Cup, so we'll see how that goes and, if he's OK, he has a month then to go from there.
"I haven't done anything with him since, to be fair, so I don't really know [if he has since recovered his wellbeing]. He wasn't really sparkling. Whether he had a little bit of chill on him, I don't know."
I asked O'Neill if the horse would definitely be aimed at the Gold Cup. "I'd say probably. I'm swayed this way [towards the Grand National] a bit. He stays so well and you've got to stay there. It's all right having a good horse but they've got to stay. It's that last half-mile makes all the difference."
O'Neill has inherited Arbor Supreme from Willie Mullins, who sent the horse over for the last two Nationals, in which he failed to complete the course. O'Neill says he is "in good form" and describes 10-7 as "a good racing weight".
O'Neill's third entry is Sunnyhillboy on 11-5. "He ran a blinder in the Irish National last year to be third. It's whether we go there or go here, we'll decide nearer the time.
"He's not the biggest and it took him an awful long time to get his jumping right. He took a nasty old fall at Cheltenham [last March] but he seems to have got over it and he seems in good form."
Sunnyhillboy was last seen flopping when favourite for a valuable handicap at Cheltenham in December and I asked O'Neill if he had an explanation for the poor showing. "Don't know, to be honest with you. Just one of those things, he didn't fire at all and he can't have been right. But he seems in great shape at home now and I'm looking forward to his next couple of runs. He's in this weekend at Haydock over hurdles and we'll see where we go from there."
How Ballabriggs won in 2011
The 2011 National winner Ballabriggs is going to have to defy the stats to follow up in 2012 under what will be a huge burden. Here's a re-run, above, of how he won the world's most famous race last April.
House could be one to have mortgage on in National
Will Hayler: From a punters' point of view, it's not easy to recommend a bet on the Grand National looking at the prices put in front of me so far by the bookmakers.
A quick thumbnail calculation suggests that Betfred's ante-post market on the race adds up to an over-round of 230 per cent ? a massive take-out for the bookmakers. William Hill's is even bigger ? I make it roughly 242.
In the (limited) defence of the bookmakers, they will be refunding stakes on all horses that are balloted out of the race and fail to make the final line-up. There were around 20 last year. Furthermore, one would expect a bigger take-out on the race than any other due to high number of runners ? even the starting price return on the day is likely to weigh in at around 150 per cent judged on recent evidence.
Horses who are right at the bottom of the weights that would have struggled to get in in recent years have a realistic chance of making the line-up this year. That seems to have scared bookies.
But a look back at William Hill's book for the 2008 National suggests that the prices offered on that day were at a margin of around 200 per cent. Why so much tighter this year?
Betfair, who operate to the same ante-post rules for backers (in other words, that stakes are lost on non-runners but refunded on horses who are balloted out) are pricing the race to 132 per cent plus commission of up to five per cent on winnings.
Horses to catch my eye initially in the weights include Stewarts House (84-1 on Betfair, best price 40s with the bookmakers), The Midnight Club (a very fair 33-1 with Ladbrokes) and old friend State of Play, 8-1 on Betfair and with BetVictor to make the frame for the fourth year running.
The lunch has actually started and Chris Cook is enjoying the delights of the Savoy's food and drink (he hasn't sent a copy of the menu yet but we are expecting news on that soon). Meanwhile, you can follow the up-to-the-minute news via his @ClaimsFive Twitter feed here.
Will Hayler is working on finding tomorrow's winners and informs me he might make it in for dessert. You can follow the thoughts of the last man left in the Press room at the National weights lunch via Twitter here.
Lunch is served . . . Chris Cook reveals what the great and good of jump racing and assorted freeloaders are enjoying at the Savoy . . . At Tony's request, here is the gravy train menu for the National weights lunch. We have begun with slow-roasted rump of Kentish lamb with minestrone vegetables, braised potato and tomato-tarragon jus. We will shortly receive Lemon breton, mascarpone vanilla cream and apricot honey sauce, followed by coffee and petit fours. Some (but not the good folks of the press) have been quaffing Les Vigneaux Chardonnay (2010) and Chateau Roudier (2006). I hope you appreciate the suffering that is endured in order to bring you today's racing news. The fare may not be quite up to this standard in the press room at Kelso tomorrow.
National hopefuls won't be sweating about getting a run
Chris Cook: Not many trainers and owners will have to sweat over whether their horse will make the cut for this year's National, as there are only 82 entrants. For the last nine years, 70th place in the weights at the initial entry stage has been high enough to get into the race, because there are so many withdrawals during the two months before the race.
That means that only the bottom dozen are really in trouble this year, in all likelihood. The 70th horse is currently Qhilimar.
Carberry has live chance to record female National first
Will Hayler: Three clear rounds in three starts is an decent record for Nina Carberry and she might have her best chance yet of becoming the first female jockey to win the National when she partners Organisedconfusion in this year's race.
Trainer Arthur Moore has confirmed Carberry will ride the horse, on whom she won last year's Irish Grand National, provided he pleases in the build-up to the race.
"He had quite a nasty fall at the first on his last start and I'll be looking for a decent run from him when we give him a spin early next month, but I'd like to get him to Aintree if that goes well and Nina will be on board him again," said the trainer.
Carberry, who married Ted Walsh's son Ted junior earlier this month, has ridden over 200 winners. Her father Tommy rode the 1975 National winner L'Escargot, while her brother Paul was also successful aboard Bobbyjo in 1999.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/feb/14/grand-national-2012-weights
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