Stuart Lancaster says new coaches are at a disadvantage but history suggests more established ones should be nervous
The Six Nations is often lauded, in Europe at least, as the best international rugby tournament in the world but how many references will be made over the next couple of months to the World Cup, even though it is three or four months shy of four years away?
Test rugby seems to operate on four-year cycles, from the end of one World Cup to the conclusion of the next. When Marc Li�vremont succeeded Bernard Laporte after the 2007 tournament, he said he intended to use his first Six Nations to look at as many players as he could, a policy he continued into the following year, with 2011 in mind.
He took France to the World Cup final last October, somehow, but Les Bleus are again under new management, like Italy and England. Wales, Ireland and Scotland are continuing with their old regimes, prompting England's interim head coach, Stuart Lancaster, to reflect last month that the trio had an inherent advantage over the others.
The 2008 Six Nations would suggest otherwise. Three countries went into the tournament with new coaches: Wales, France and Italy. While the Azzurri finished at the bottom of the table, pipped on points difference by Scotland, Wales and France met in the final match in Cardiff with the title at stake.
Wales needed to avoid defeat while France had to win by 20 points to head the table. The home side won 29-12 to secure the grand slam and England, who like Scotland and Ireland retained the head coaches who had taken them to the World Cup, finished second on points difference over Les Bleus.
A month after the end of the 2008 Six Nations, the Ireland head coach, Eddie O'Sullivan, had resigned and Brian Ashton, after a tortuous process, was relieved of his position by England; a year later, the Scotland coach, Frank Hadden, was looking for a new job.
Ashton had taken England to the 2007 World Cup final while O'Sullivan's Ireland failed to make the knockout stage. The reasoning of both unions ? O'Sullivan knew that his time was up even though he had three years left on his contract ? was that a new coach needed time to prepare for the next World Cup.
Rob Andrew, the Rugby Football Union's then director of elite rugby, said of the decision to replace Ashton with Martin Johnson: "We've decided to go down a road which is to start rebuilding. It is a three-year process, as was the case in 1988 [when England changed coaches the year after the inaugural World Cup] and Clive Woodward started in 1997."
When Declan Kidney was introduced as O'Sullivan's successor, the Irish Rugby Football Union's chief executive, Philip Browne, said: "It was obvious from the very beginning of this process that he was one of the main contenders to lead Ireland to the next Rugby World Cup in 2011."
In April 2009, the then chief executive of the Scottish Rugby Union, Gordon McKie, explained Hadden's removal by saying: "It was agreed with Frank that a change in head coach is required to allow us to plan fully for the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand."
Given the declared importance of the World Cup, and no country has changed its coach before the tournament more than Wales, is there more pressure this Six Nations on Scotland's Andy Robinson, Wales's Warren Gatland and Kidney than the new appointees, France's Philippe Saint-Andr�, Italy's Jacques Brunel and Lancaster, who while being England's interim coach has said he will apply for the permanent position?
Robinson is where O'Sullivan was four years ago, looking for redemption after a World Cup campaign that ended before the quarter-finals. Kidney, like Hadden, took his side to the last eight but failed to progress despite facing a side below the top five in the world rankings. Gatland may not have led Wales to the final, but they had only reached the semi-final once before, back in 1987.
Is there more pressure to perform on Ireland, Wales and Scotland than England, France and Italy? Lancaster's temporary position complicates the question so, put another way, is his belief that the countries with new managements start behind those with established coaching teams challenged by what happened after the 2007 World Cup?
Will Robinson survive another Six Nations that is low on tries and even lower on victories? How safe will Kidney be if Ireland, buoyed by the record of three of their Heineken Cup teams, scrape a couple of victories? And while Gatland's Wales were hailed for their showing in New Zealand, his future had been questioned just 12 months before. Will their employers decide to "plan fully" for the 2015 World Cup?
If the example of 2008 points to France or England winning this year's Six Nations, 2004 would suggest otherwise. France, under Laporte who was in his fifth year in charge, won the grand slam but four of the other countries ? Ireland, the runners-up, were the exception ? changed their coaches between the end of that tournament and the following year.
Woodward resigned, Steve Hansen left Wales to return home to New Zealand while Scotland's Matt Williams and Italy's John Kirwan were sacked after the 2005 Six Nations with their unions deciding they were not the men to lead the teams to the World Cup.
Why does the 2015 World Cup matter now? England should be thinking how they can start taking control at the breakdown; Scotland how they can end their try-shyness; France how they can rise to all occasions; Ireland how they can replicate the success of their leading provinces in Europe; Wales how they can keep their players fit; and Italy how they can get on the right sides of referees.
A Six Nations is a major event, not a testing ground for a tournament that is years off. Nothing else will matter for the next couple of months.
Irish are the team to stop
There was little to choose between France, Wales, Ireland and England in the four years in the Six Nations after the 2007 World Cup. When Wales went to Paris in the final game of last year's championship, the winner would finish with the best record in the period.
It turned out to be France who secured 28 points out of 40. Wales and Ireland mustered 26 with England a point behind. Scotland trailed in fifth with 19 while Italy were bottom on 13.
Wales, Ireland and France all achieved a grand slam, something that eluded the 2011 champions England on the final weekend of the campaign when they were overwhelmed by Ireland in Dublin.
The previous four-year cycle was dominated by France and Ireland. Les Bleus totalled 34 points, losing just three matches in the period, while the Irish had three campaigns when they finished with four victories and one defeat, constantly reminded that they had not won the grand slam since 1948.
England had a 50% record, 10 victories and 10 defeats, while Wales, despite winning the grand slam in 2005, lost more matches than they won and garnered 19 points. Scotland and Italy again brought up the rear, the former winning five out of 20 while the Azzurri's seven points included a victory over Wales in Rome and a draw in Cardiff.
In the first four years of the Six Nations, from 2000, England were the dominant side, losing three times, six points ahead of Ireland and eight in front of France. Scotland were more successful, or should that be less unsuccessful, than Wales, 15 points compared to 13, while the new boys Italy managed a mere two wins.
So in the history of the Six Nations, France have accumulated 88 points out of 120, Ireland 84, England 79, Wales 58, Scotland 34 and Italy 17, which is pretty much the order in which the bookmakers reckon this year's tournament will finish.
The last World Cup would suggest that the Six Nations will remain a four-way fight. Scotland and Italy failed to make the quarter-finals, while France lost by a point to New Zealand in the final having beaten Wales by a point in the last four and England more comfortably in the quarter-final. Ireland went through the group stage unbeaten, defeating Australia, but succumbed to Wales in the last eight.
Leinster and Munster have each won the Heineken Cup twice in the last six years. They have both developed a facility to win matches when they have been short of their best, home or away, having the knack of clambering off the ropes to deliver a knockout blow. If Ireland tap into that, they will be the team to stop, but they will have to do so without Brian O'Driscoll.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/feb/02/the-breakdown-six-nations-coaches
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