The message is clear: England are guaranteed nothing, particularly if they start slowly and allow their composure to fray
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At some stage in life everyone reaches a T-junction. Turn left for a brighter future, turn right for the dark side. England, sooner than expected, have arrived at that delicate intersection. Beat Scotland in the most eagerly awaited head-on collision between the old enemies for 20 years and most of their troubles disappear. Lose by more than seven points and, barring a freak reprieve, they will be on a plane with little to show for an eventful month in New Zealand.
Even by the standards of professional sport, it is a brutal equation. But therein lies the beauty of Rugby World Cups, as Martin Johnson well knows. England have not covered themselves in sweet-smelling rose petals lately but, to this management, that is irrelevant. Win and people will forgive you everything, lose and the fig leaves suddenly thin out. Johnson will always be a stubborn competitor but no manager would presume to be reappointed should England fail to reach the knockout stages for the first time.
In theory they should have no such fears. Say what you like about balls and off-field adventures, but England do have a sprinkling of world-class talent. The majority of New Zealanders would happily poach Ben Youngs for the All Blacks, while Manu Tuilagi and Chris Ashton have the potential to break records before their international days are done. Courtney Lawes has all the makings of a future Test giant. Steve Thompson, Lewis Moody, Jonny Wilkinson and Mike Tindall know what it takes to win a World Cup. There should be enough ballast to send their opponents homeward instead.
But then you listen to Scotland's players. Had they not suffered a momentary brainstorm in the final minutes against Argentina, they would already be safely into the last eight. At Twickenham in March they lost 22-16, with England's solitary try from Tom Croft scored when the Scots were down to 14 men. "The last time we played against them I felt we had them rattled," said Max Evans, always an elusive attacking threat. "I think the boys believe they can win," murmured Sean Lamont, preparing to line up at inside-centre opposite Tindall. "It's just about execution, ball retention and taking the opportunities when they come."
The message is clear enough: England are guaranteed nothing, particularly if they start slowly, concede early penalties and allow their composure to fray at the breakdown. Scotland's team has been specifically chosen to play at pace; whatever they lacked in finishing power against the Pumas their handling was frequently outstanding in desperately difficult conditions. Richie Gray, Euan Murray, John Barclay, Lamont and Evans would all press hard for places in England's XV. Some might say Chris Paterson's goal-kicking is a more reliable weapon just now than Jonny Wilkinson's.
Then there is the weather. There is no question England were lucky to play all three of their pool matches beneath the roof of the Otago Stadium. These days they prefer a dry ball, the easier for Ashton and Tuilagi to collect as they surge on to flat inside balls close to the gainline. Scotland, who played in the famous "water polo" Test at Eden Park in 1975, have been splashing about in the shallow end for most of the tournament. If it is wet, as the forecasters have been insisting all week, it will hardly faze the Scots.
Nor does Andy Robinson concede that Scotland's inability to beat England by more than six points for the past 25 years might just be a teensy-weensy bit of an issue. "Historians like to look back," he replied. "I'm the type of guy who likes looking forward." As he spoke the gleam in his eye was unmistakable. For a patriotic Englishman, there is a distinct streak of Robbo the Bruce about him at times, even before he joked about going to watch the Red Hot Chilli Pipers in concert.
England's former head coach also learned long ago that teams who make the mistake of assuming victory before a ball is kicked deserve to be beaten. England were given virtually no chance of beating Australia in their Marseille quarter-final four years ago; some players had even phoned home to tell their partners they would be back within 48 hours. Instead the Wallabies walked straight into the warm embrace of Andrew Sheridan and his fellow forwards, inspiring England to waltz all the way to the final.
Johnson's men, in addition, are capable of producing the occasional shocker without any prior warning. Even if they do sneak past the Scots, it is a bad habit they need to eradicate. A losing bonus point might still be enough to sidestep the All Blacks in the knockout stages, but it would hardly terrify France, their probable next opponents. At times England invite little sympathy, but being piped out of the tournament by euphoric Scots really would be a grim punishment. That spectre should be sufficient to keep them in New Zealand for at least another week.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/sep/30/rugby-world-cup-2011-england-scotland
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