The latest news and best bets in our daily horse racing blog, plus the start of a new week's tipping competition
3.29pm Musselburgh abandoned
Chris Cook: . . . because of high winds. Day one of this week's competition has therefore been reduced to one race, the 3.40 at Kempton.
I decided this morning not to include any races from Brighton, in case that was called off because of the wind. Another fine piece of tipping.
2.20pm French Tote putting itself about
Chris Cook: Loath as I am to link to an advert for a bookie, a series of ads by the French Tote, the PMU, are very entertaining and you can see one of them here, with links to the others on the same page. The point of the campaign seems to be to let people know that they can bet on lots of other sports with the PMU, not just horse racing.
UPDATE - just as I was slagging our own Tote for not being so inventive, along comes the Tote's George Primarolo to point out they did, in fact, do something similar, which you can see here.
Today's best bets, by Greg Wood
It's not much of a day for Flat racing in the UK, with Musselburgh expecting to receive the tail-end of Hurricane Katia and Brighton ? as I can report with some assurance, simply by looking out of my window - shrouded in chilly mist and low cloud. So perhaps the first thing to do today from a punting point of view is to take whatever is left of the 8-1 about Reliable Man for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe next month, because it is vanishing fast.
My immediate reaction after watching the Prix Niel at Longchamp yesterday was that Reliable Man would be top-priced at around 5-1 for the Arc and it was a real surprise to find 10-1 available instead, albeit briefly. The Niel is well-established as the best trial for the race and three-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 Arcs, generally from a representation of between 30% and 40% of the field.
James Knight, an odds-compiler with Coral, asked on Twitter on Sunday night how long it is since a horse won an Arc having previously been beaten in it. The answer, it transpired, was 23 years, the horse in question being Tony Bin, who somehow fluked a victory against the brilliant Mtoto. Sarafina, then, is looking to buck quite a stat but, while she clearly has a solid chance on 2 October, I think what this lack of success for second-timers shows is just how difficult it is to beat the three-year-olds.
It may be that Reliable Man was a double-figure price after the Niel because Sarafina, already installed as favourite for the Arc, had won her own trial in the Prix Foy half an hour earlier, and been cut accordingly. It would have seemed strange to push her out again 30 minutes later and so perhaps Reliable Man ended up at a less defensive price than might otherwise have been the case. Whatever the reason, his odds are now contracting to a more realistic level now. Once the 8-1 vanishes, it is unlikely to return.
Domestically, Rent Free (Musselburgh 4.50) should give Silvestre de Sousa a winner in what looks an increasingly forlorn pursuit of the jockeys' championship, while Foreign Rhythm (4.20) is a fair price at the same track. At Brighton, Timpanist (4.00) should record her first success if the blinkers that improved her last time out have a similar effect again today. Of course, it is not yet certain that racing will take place at Brighton today, with strong winds an additional cause for concern.
Tipping competition ? a new week
Congratulations to wiggy12, who sealed victory in last week's competition by picking Sure Route (6-1) on Friday to finish on a score of +26. Wiggy had already indicated, however, that he could not use the prize (tickets to the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday), so I therefore offer it to the runner-up, VolleVlug, who finished on +15.25. An email will be on its way to you shortly, Volle.
This week, we offer your a second chance to win a copy of Gamble, the new Dick Francis novel, written by the late author's son, Felix. Published this month, the book tells the tale of a jump jockey whose life is plunged into mystery when a friend is shot dead before the Grand National. Fans of Francis may recognise one or two familiar themses there.
To kick things off, we'd like your tips, please, for just one race, the3.40 Kempton, our other two races having been lost when Musselburgh was abandoned.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of �1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Click here for all the day's racecards, form, stats and results.
Post your racing-related comments below.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/sep/12/horse-racing-live-12-september-2011
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