Goal Differential: What the Non-Playoff Teams Must Do

by Adam Gretz

Filed under: Blue Jackets, Blues, Ducks, Flames, Hurricanes, Islanders, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Oilers, Panthers, Rangers, Stars, Thrashers, Wild, NHL Playoffs

Around this time last year I looked at what the non-playoff teams needed to do in terms of their goal differential to have a shot at qualifying for the postseason. As it turns out, six of the teams that failed to qualify for the playoffs the year before ended up improving enough to make it this season (Ottawa, Nashville, Colorado, Phoenix, Buffalo and Los Angeles).

Why does goal differential matter? The obvious answer: good teams outscore their opponents, and great teams outscore their opponents by a lot.

Of the 160 playoff teams since the 1999-00 season, only 12 have finished the regular season with a negative differential, and only three have been worse than minus-10. The magic number over that time period to get into the playoffs has been right around plus-20. Of the 102 teams that have finished with such a mark, 100 of them (98 percent) have qualified for the postseason.

Here's a look at how much improvement last year's non-playoff teams need to reach the magic number of plus-20.

 

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