The latest news and best bets in our daily horse racing blog, plus our weekly tipping competition
Paul Jones' daily Cheltenham Festival countdown stat
It has been suggested by certain sections of the media that the Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner has a poor record at the following season's Festival arguing that winning a race 12 months later just three times since the race's inception in 1992 is a poor return.
I would go the opposite way and argue they are over-performing when we consider that only 11 reigning title holders returned the following season yet Montelado won the Supreme Novice Hurdle, Florida Pearl won the RSA Chase and Monsignor won what is now the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle and two others were placed. This negative suggestion may have been brought around as the last three Weatherbys Champion Bumper winners were well fancied for the Supreme Novice Hurdle but were ultimately disappointing given their SPs finishing third, fifth and seventh respectively.
However, bumper winners are not usually bred for two-mile speed tests and it is significant that top-six finishers in the previous season's Festival Bumper have a fine record in the Neptune over 2m5f as 11 have taken their chance in the last 12 runnings of which three have won (French Holly, Monsignor and Fiveforthree) and three more have been placed (Pizarro, Refinement and Rite Of Passage). Maybe Colin Tizzard should be thinking more Neptune than Supreme with Cue Card?
Paul Jones is author of The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys
Today's best bets, by Will Hayler
During yesterday's press conference on the World Throroughbred Rankings which confirmed Harbinger's status as being a very good horses, who beat some quite good horses by a long way, I wrote down one particular quote from one of the handicappers which summarised some of my feelings about the old ratings game.
"You don't need us to categorise the greatness of horses," said rankings committee co-chairman Garry O'Gorman. Forgive me, but I thought that was the point?
Looking at the ratings tables is an interesting exercise and I enjoyed listening to the debate about the relative merits of the best horses in the world and then last season's leading two-year-olds, but it didn't change any of my opinions, and on occasions we hit the same brick wall in trying to explain the inexplicable.
Assessing the form of Workforce's Derby win, the same ever-quotable O'Gorman, the senior Irish Flat handicapper, said: "Workforce beat the old course record by about six lengths, but only beat At First Sight, who'd done the donkey work, by seven lengths, so that horse nearly broke the old course record too.
"At First Sight had looked ordinary going into that race and ordinary after it. Go figure." No, me neither, Garry.
A slow early pace proved the undoing of Stratton Banker (5.15) on his latest start where the step up to six furlongs had looked beforehand as if it might suit, but even though he is back down at a minimum trip here, no race in which Feelin Foxy takes part is ever run at anything other than a decent gallop.
With Nickel Silver and Grudge also likely to chase the pace, this evening's Kempton contest should be run to suit the selection, who can maintain his progressive profile and pick his rivals off in the home straight to win from behind.
Duke of Rainford (4.15) has had excuses for most of his recent poor performances and back over what appears to be his optimum track and trip, he can return to form. The booking of Jamie Spencer particularly takes the eye. He gave this horse a good ride to win at Wolverhampton a year ago.
But Beautiful (6.45) moves into handicap company off a lowly rating, but is a well-bred and attractive filly, who at 320,000 guineas would have cost more than the rest of these put together twice. Attracting big bucks in the sales ring is no guarantee of ability, of course, but she finished strongly to win a maiden at this track last month and is open to plenty more improvement.
Tipping competition, day three
The two leaders had a healthy lead after day one but it was whittled down yesterday when neither picked a winner ? TheSquire86 didn't even turn up! Melonk and HartnettRob both had winners at 4-1 and 2-1 while William36 had both of those and Anquetta (5-1) for a nice treble.
Today, we'd like your tips, please, for these races: 2.50 Doncaster, 3.35 Lingfield, 4.15 Kempton.
This week's prize is a copy of The Cheltenham World of Jump Racing , a beautifully illustrated guide to the winter game, published by the Racing Post and written by Mick Fitzgerald.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of �1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not yet joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -6.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Standings after day two
xwireman +20
TheSquire86 +20
melonk +17.33
HartnettRob +17
Captain77 +13
ToffeeDan1 +12.33
TL127 +10
Moscow08 +9
William36 +8
millreef +5
Mai11 +5
15244 +5
willbeckwith +5
Mulldog +4.33
SussexRH +4.33
BearRides +3
Ellandback +1.33
MillieJ +0
scandalous +0
Ormrod76 -1
TheVic -1.67
Brochdoll -1.67
fatfrank29 -1.67
Shrewdette -1.67
tiznow -1.67
tom1977 -3
chanleyman -3
shears39 -3
twig28 -3
Copshaw -3
Harrytheactor -3
JahLion -3
MauriceNL -3
MISTERCHESTER -6
goofs -6
irishbrumy -6
SmokingGun1 -6
simmorrissey -6
steve084 -6
nonothing -6
Lameduck -6
sandiuk -6
diegoisgod -6
slackdad38 -6
triggo321 -6
23skidoo -6
chiefhk -6
WalthamstowLad -6
snowy81 -6
nerium -6
chrishol -6
sangfroid -6
Templegate -6
curlycov -6
orso -6
erniemung -6
carl31 -6
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